Corona Risk Exposure By Country

Corona shock exposure: Covid 19, sustainability, and competitiveness, country by country

What does basic data tell us about country’s public health and economic risk exposure to the corona pandemic? Download the full analysis (health impacts, economic impacts, combined corona impacts) here: Corona Risk Exposure by Country

Basic health care and economic performance data – quantitative measurable data – can tell us about the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on different countries – both in terms of the toll on health and the economic consequences following the global shutdown.

(Note: This is meant to be neither perfect nor absolute.  Basic data cannot tell us about the quality and speed of crisis management, which obviously has a very high influence on final outcomes.)

Covid-19 risks

This analysis describes a country’s combined risks to health toll and the downward economic risks before the pandemic. Key observations include:

  • The US is 3rd on that list, with the risk factors 20% higher than the global average
  • Some African countries seem to be lesser exposed – mostly due to the small size of the risk group (the Elderly), and high employment in the agricultural sector (employment in the basic needs sectors is low-payed, but comparably safe in times of economic downturns)
  • Europe is a mixed picture with below average risk exposure (e.g. Germany) to higher-risk exposure (Spain, Portugal)
  • China’s risk exposure is 8% above the global average
  • Some highly populated developing nations (e.g. South Africa, Indonesia) are significantly above the global average

Corona RIsk World Map

Crisis management: Korea!

An equal – or even bigger – influence on the final toll of this distressing pandemic has the crisis management. The different responses in different countries unfortunately cannot be measured quantitatively. However, we already have certain data from different countries available that indicates what works (and works not so well). The accuracy of this data is questioned by many; however – even considering the unreported/not tested cases -the data shows a very clear picture: forward step South Korea.

PerCapitaCoronaCases

Corona cases per capita (source: www.corona-data.ch)

The data is very, very clear: Korea is on a far flatter trajectory than all of the Western nations. The actions that have set Korea apart are:

  • Very early risk awareness
  • Rapid development of huge testing capabilities
  • The rapid deployment of contact tracing technology
  • Societal discipline 1: people didn’t go out and party. The lockdown did not have to be enforced because – for whatever reasons – Koreans stay at home voluntarily
  • Societal discipline 2: everybody is wearing a face mask. While probably not 100% protective, the chance that an asymptotic carrier of the virus infects others is most likely lower (to what degree is not yet known). And as we came to know, every step counts in this fight.

Our systems are neither sustainable nor competitive

Unfortunately, government responses are often managed in a political environment rather than on a scientific basis. What this pandemic also shows – our systems are not sustainable (if not to say broken). They are not up to the task of protecting societies from disruption – neither in terms of health, nor economically. From a management stand-point of view, they are simply inefficient. Not competitive. And therefore, not sustainable.

Which raises the question: what are the alternatives?

Download the full analysis here, including risk exposue to public health, risk exposure to economic fallout, and the combined risk of both (PDF, 10 pages): Corona Risk Exposure by Country

Download the data here (excel file) Country Covid Risk Exposure Data

 

The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index 2017 is out!

The Sustainable Competitiveness Index 2017

Northern Europe is leading the GSCI; US competitiveness set to decline if proposed new policies are all implemented; conventional sovereign bond ratings do not reflect full risks and potential of countries competitiveness

Contrarily to common measurements (GDP) and ratings which are mainly based on financial (economic output, the GSI measures the root causes that define national wealth and competitiveness.

The GSCI is  based on the sustainable competitiveness model calculated through 111 measurable, quantitative indicators to exclude all objectivity. Performance data is also analysed against the trends over time to reflect not only the present, but also the outlook into the future. A comprehensive measurement for competitiveness. Sustainable competitiveness.

Key takeaways from the 6th edition of the Sustainable Competiveness Ranking 2017:

  • Of the top twenty nations only three are not European – New Zealand on 13, South Korea on 16, and Japan on 20.
  • Scandinavia covers the top 5 ranks. Sweden is leading the Sustainable Competitiveness for a second consecutive year – followed by the other 4 the Scandinavian nations.
  • The top 20 are dominated by Northern European countries, including the Baltic states and Slovenia
  • Germany ranks 14, the UK 22, and the World’s largest economy, the US, is ranked 29. The US ranks particularly low in resource efficiency, but also social capital - undermining the global status of the US in the future
  • Of the large emerging economies (BRICs), China is ranked 32, Brazil 42, Russia 43, and India 121.
  • Some of the least developed nations have a considerable higher GSCI ranking than their GDP would suggest (e.g. Laos, Timor, Burma, Bhutan, Suriname…)
  • Asian nations (South Korea, Japan, Singapore, and China) lead the Intellectual Capital ranking. However, achieving sustained prosperity in these countries might be compromised by Natural Capital constraints and current high resource intensity/low resource efficiency
  • The Social Cohesion ranking is headed by Northern European (Scandinavian) countries, indicating that Social Cohesion is the result of economic growth combined with social consensus
  • The US is set for decline, in particular vs. China, if policies proposed under the new administration are to be fully implemented
  • Conventional sovereign bond ratings do not reflect the full risk and potential associated with nation economies. They need to integrate sustainability, now.

The Sustainable Competitiveness World Map:

Dark areas indicate high, light areas low Sustainable Competitveness

Download the Report:
The Global Competitiveness Report 2017

Read the press release:
Press Release - GSCI 2017

Trump-US and China: outlook of competitiveness

The aging super-power set for decline

The USA and China are the World's largest economies. The new US administration is prioritising a set of new policies. China has announced changes to its power and party governance structure on the recent party congress. Both are based on a outspoken rhetoric of national strength and pride, and both continue their respective economic policies of the past 2 or 3 decades. 

The US – in particular under the new administration – is advocating a free a market approach, where as much as possible should be left to self-regulation by the market. China, on the other hand, continues to advocate a state-directed free market approach, where the state directs the economic development through investments and policies. With China pushing more and more on the World stage, it is possible that we have a new competition between two different state systems on our hands. Whether we like that or not.

In this light, SolAbility has evaluated the future impacts of US policies as proposed by the new administration on the ground – based on the 111 indicators used for the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index.  The results show that the US is set to forfeit competitiveness and drop from its current ranking of 20 in the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index 2017 to somewhere in the 80s until 2025. China, on the other hand, is set to gain competitiveness until the mid-2020s, before the new authoritarian   style is stifling further developments.

Download the Report:
Trump-US, China: Sustainable Competitiveness Outlook

Credit Ratings vs. Sustainable Competitiveness

Why sovereign bond and credit ratings need to integrate sustainablility

Credit rating define the interest a country has to pay on loans, credits, state bonds, in short – on debt.  Considering the level of state debts, the credit rating has a significant impact on the capital cost of nations.

The most important rating agencies are based on the “3 sisters” – Standard & Poor's (S&P), Moody's, and Fitch Group that together dominate the global market. Unfortunately, these ratings are based almost exclusively on economic, financial and political indicators, many of which are qualitative (i.e. cannot exclude subjectiveness). They are not fully reflecting the opportunities and risks associated with the fundamentals of the country; quality of education, infrastructure, social cohesion, and the environment. In addition, there have been accusation of political bias after ratings, in some cases, were adjusted following election and referenda outcomes

The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index on the other hand is based on quantitative (i.e. subjective) indicators. It based on the fundamentals that define the outcome, including economic success.

Current credit ratings and sustainable adjusted credit ratings for selected countries

The comparison between conventional sovereign bond ratings shows distinctive differences. Current sovereign ratings do not reflect real risks/opportunities. Credit ratings need to integrate sustainability.

Read more in the Sustainable vs Conventional Competitiveness Report:
Sovereign bonds and sustainability

Korea: Status & Outlook

Korea & Sustainable Competitiveness

Top in Innovation, bottom in resource management

Korea is ranked on the 41st position of the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index 2016. The breakdown of results shows a very mixed picture: Korea is the global Number One in terms of Intellectual Capital (the basis for Innovation) – but at the same time, the last of 180 nations in terms of resource efficiency. A very mixed bag.

This report is divided in two parts. Part one analysis Korea’s current status of competitiveness, while part two develops potential policies to ensure Korea’s sustainable competitiveness going forward.

The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index (GSCI) is based on 109 quantitative performance indicators, analysed for current performance and recent trends to anticipate the future performance. Korea currently ranks #40 of 180 nations in the GSCI, scoring only 5% above average, but more than 25% below the best. Korea’s performance in this index is mixed: while Korea achieved the highest score globally in intellectual capital, it also scores lowest globally in resource intensity.

Korea’s performance and key deficits in each sustainable competitiveness dimension are:

  • Natural capital, rank 154: Korea is a comparable small country considering the size of the population, with a limited area of arable land – and no significant mineral resources to speak off. The high water withdrawal rate is a source of concern – potential water scarcity and efficiency are issues that need to be looked at urgently.
  • Resource intensity, rank 180 of 180: Korea has a higher share of manufacturing and energy-intensive industries than most other countries. However – Korea uses significantly more energy, water, and raw materials than other economies to generate economic output. High resource intensity is equal to higher cost for the economy, and urgently needs to be addressed – especially given Korea’s dependence on import of virtually all commodities and fossil energy.
  • Intellectual capital, rank 1: Korea is doing well in the key area of innovation-driven competitiveness: education and R&D. However – maybe the country could benefit from a shift in focus from higher education to a more skills-based education system.
  • Governance, rank 19: investments are at a high level and the infrastructure is modern. However, weak governance, and falling press freedom (from rank 31 to 70 in the last 10 years) are of concern
  • Social capital, rank 65: while health care availability is guaranteed, the highest suicide rate in the World indicates some systemic social problems.

Download the Press Release -
Korea GSCI Press Release

Download the full report -
Korea & Sustainable Competitiveness: Status & Outlook

US Competitiveness

What The Donald !!!

...maybe should be worried about.

Or: why the US is only ranked 32 in the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index.
An analyis of the sustainable competitiveness of the USA, derived from the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index

The US is currently only ranked 32 of 180 nations in the GSCI, scoring only 10% above average, but nearly 25% below the best. While the US scores above average in natural capital, intellectual capital and governance, the country is considerably below the global average in both resource intensity and social cohesion.

US competitiveness vs. global best and average

USA Competitiveness vs. Global best and average

Why the US is not in the top league:

  • Natural capital, rank 31: The US is a big and beautiful country with abundant natural resources. However – water scarcity and efficiency are issues that need to be looked at urgently, especially in the dry plains and on the West Coast.
  • Resource intensity, rank 161: the US uses significantly more energy, water, and raw materials than other economies to achieve economic output. High resource intensity is equal to higher cost for the economy, and urgently needs to be addressed in order to MAGA.
  • Intellectual capital, rank 19: compared to global peers the performance of US student is simply dismal, and R&D investments are scarily low, raising serious doubts over US’ ability to compete in an innovation-driven global economy.
  • Governance, rank 41: No real news here – the lack of investment in infrastructure, and a high structural deficit remain the main concerns.
  • Social capital, rank 114: high crime rates, and social inequality are not only dividing the nation – they are also costly.

Download the full analysis, The State of Competitiveness of the USA:
What The Donald