Sustainable
Competitiveness

GSCI data reveals a widening competitiveness gap between the US and China in renewable energy manufacturing. China overtook the US in high-tech manufacturing in 2015 and overall competitiveness in 2022, and now leads by widening margins across every industrial indicator.

The $6-8 trillion global energy market is undergoing structural transformation. Renewable energy costs have collapsed; fossil fuels are becoming uncompetitive. This is the story of winners, losers, and the economic shift defining the next half-century.

Global oil inventories were at a five-year high when the war started. Seven weeks later, they're draining at 200 million barrels per month. Analysis of supply recovery lags, the phantom ceasefire scenario, refined product shortfalls, and what consumers actually pay.

Day-by-day economic model of the Strait of Hormuz closure. Three scenarios, four channels, 87 countries. Brent crude, cumulative GDP loss, inflation and oil price trajectories from Day 0 to Day 180. Interactive calculator lets you set the scenario and conflict duration.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stranded 15.8M bpd across GCC states and Iraq. Three scenarios model the transmission to global GDP — from −$590B to −$3.5T (3.15% of world GDP) — across oil, LNG, fertilizer and shipping channels. Gulf states and Iraq are net losers in all of them.

How a country's energy mix determines its vulnerability to the Gulf crisis. Renewable electricity buffers 6–29% of total energy exposure across 34 countries. Uruguay's 98% RE grid saves 0.15pp on the electricity channel; China's LNG trap makes it more exposed than 20 years ago. Global GDP at risk: −3.15% in the prolonged scenario.